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UBS Warns of 93% U.S. Recession Probability, Stagflation Fears Grow
UBS Warns of 93% U.S. Recession Probability, Stagflation Fears Grow
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UBS analysts have raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 93%, citing cooling labor markets, declining building permits, and shrinking GDP. The Swiss investment bank's assessment, based on hard data from May to July, stops short of predicting an outright collapse—instead forecasting a prolonged period of 70s-style stagflation.
Market observers remain divided. While some dismiss the warning as another iteration of recession fear-mongering, others argue the downturn has already begun. The report notably excludes sentiment-driven metrics, focusing instead on concrete indicators like individual income and industrial production figures sourced from the National Bureau of Economic Research.
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